미국도 노년층 일계속하나보다
The Olds Aren’t Quitting |
Amid reports of Americans returning to work after the Covid hiatus, a trope has taken hold that older people are lagging behind. This stems from August data showing the labor-force participation rate for the 55-plus cohort was near its lowest level in 15 years. But Justin Fox, like me a member of that cohort, has run the rule over the numbers, and it turns out they’re deceptive.
For one thing, folks in their late 50s are participating at record rates.
For another, folks in the 60-64 cohort are participatin’ plenty; a recent slight dip can be attributed to seasonal hiring patterns.
So, should we blame the overall decline on the 65-and-over group? Yes, but. As Justin explains, that category is tiny, making up only 6.6% of the labor force. But the more salient (data)point is that there are far more Baby Boomers than Gen-Xers. This means as those in their 50s move up to the 60s, their ranks will be filled by a smaller cohort. As a result, with each passing year, the 55-plus labor-force participation rate will drop, even if the rates for every year of age within the group remain the same.
So, don’t be blaming me — or Justin. We’ve got our noses to the grindstone.
AI Isn’t Just for the Rich |
Meanwhile, another hard-working member of our cohort, Tyler Cowen, has been paying close attention to a string of important announcements about artificial intelligence. He concludes 2022 may be the breakthrough year for AI. Some folks will regard this with trepidation, believing advances in this field — while benefiting the wealthy and tech-savvy — will hurt the disadvantaged by taking away jobs and widening the technology gap. They’ve got it wrong, Tyler argues: The benefits of AI will accrue to the poor as well as the rich.
Efficiencies made possible by AI already make many goods and services cheaper. And new applications of technology typically don’t endanger the jobs of the disadvantaged. Jobs in the service sector or involving manual labor are either hard to automate or, because wages are low, less profitable to automate.
One area where the poor will be further disadvantaged is in job retraining. Thanks to AI, more jobs will require new skills. As better-educated people are more adept at learning, the increased importance of retraining will have some significant inegalitarian effects: Lesser-educated people may fall behind or be re-employed at lower wages. This — and not “the robots taking all our jobs” — is the real worry about AI, Tyler notes.
Telltale Charts |
Free college, like universal health care, is one of those European goodies many Americans crave. But, as Allison Schrager points out, the continent lags the US in producing graduates.
Some good energy news, for a change: Jobs in clean technology and decarbonization of energy systems are growing fast. They already account for half the 65 million people employed by the energy sector worldwide, says Liam Denning.
