2022. 9. 14. 13:17ㆍ카테고리 없음
배아픈 심리 조금은 위로가 된다
그렇지 코로나를 핑계로 자산가격만 오르고
그 결과 월세가격도 오르니, CPI 견디기 힘들었던것
좀 일하면서 버는 소득이 늘거나
그에 맞춰서 수요견인 인플레가 된다면 모르겠으나
이런식으로 무임승차, 사회적 거악의 역할을 한다면 이는 문제일터
문닫는 식당들이 자꾸 눈에 뜨이는데, 아파트 가격만 오른다?
이런건 이상한것일터
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Finding the Pony in the CPI Report
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Today’s CPI report reminded me of the old joke about the kid who wakes up on Christmas morning, sees a huge pile of horse manure under the tree and begins digging through it. When his parents ask him what on earth he’s thinking, he says, “There’s got to be a pony in here somewhere!”
Driven by soaring rents, consumer inflation in August was certainly a mountain of unpleasantness for both Wall Street and Main Street. It dashed hopes the Fed would ease off on rate hikes and painted a picture of an economy besieged by stubbornly rising prices everywhere. We all dug through it looking for the pony, but just came up empty. And dirty.
Except maybe we were looking in the wrong pile. The inflation measure the Fed watches more closely, the PCE, has been tamer than CPI and is expected to keep behaving, writes Jonathan Levin:
Jonathan notes the PCE gives less weight than the CPI does to housing and auto prices, which have been awful lately. Could it be the more realistic measure? Let’s hope!
The net result of all of this is that Teams Transitory and Soft Landing took a big L today, along with Wall Street. The Fed won’t be “pivoting” anytime soon, unless it’s to pick up an even heavier rate-hike stick. At the same time, we’re not facing a catastrophic resurgence of inflation yet. That’s not a pony, but maybe we can ride it for now. Read the whole thing.