2022. 5. 27. 10:40ㆍ카테고리 없음
오낼만에 블룸버그 인용해본다
어쨋든 채권시장은 인플레이션이 피킹아웃한다고 하는 것 같은데
뒤부분은 주식시장 섹터별, 시장별 performance 지루하게 설명하는건 생략하면서 앞부분만 본다
결국 성장이냐 물가냐 할때
기실 물가는 꽤나 manipulative하고, 너무나 abrupt하게 거의 L-shape 수요곡선 모양이 되어서, 잘 모르겠다
경제시장에 나온지 40년이 넘는데도
Every Breaking Wave
The tide of inflation is turning, at least as far as the financial markets are concerned. Inflation breakevens, derived from the bond market, show a sharp drop in forecasts over the last few weeks, both for the next 10 years and for the five years starting five years hence. Indeed the latter, closely followed by the Federal Reserve and known as the five-year/five-year, is right back to a level it reached in February 2021 before the inflation scare took hold. According to the bond market, there’s nothing to see here anymore:
How long this sentiment will endure is another matter, but market technicians see signs that bond yields have formed a wave that has now peaked. I’ve advertised my skepticism about technical analysis, which often has a spurious precision. But really clear patterns that are popularly regarded as significant often become self-fulfilling prophecies. One of the most popular is the “head-and-shoulders” pattern — when a market makes a peak, dips, moves back to a higher peak, dips back to its original level, moves back up to the level it made during its first move upward, and then declines again. It’s held to represent a top or, if the head and shoulders belong to someone hanging upside down, a bottom. And the 10-year Treasury yield, the most important rate in the world of finance, looks very much as though it has just traced out a perfectly formed head and shoulders:
As the icing on the cake, the two shoulders occurred at the round number of 3%. Should we regard this as telling us anything important? No. Is there a chance that — regardless of its true importance — the algorithms, primed with technical data, will take this is an invitation to buy bonds again? Yes, there is. Even if you aren’t entranced by technical analysis, it’s certainly beginning to look as though yields are trending back down. That implies confidence that inflation will come under control without the need for the Fed to hike rates too often.
Meanwhile the dollar, driven in large part by expectations of rising rates under a hawkish Fed, also looks as though it may have peaked. Using measures of its real effective rate (taking into account inflation) against a broad range of currencies, the indexes compiled by both Citi and JPMorgan suggest that it’s just put in a 20-year high and is at a level that acted as a peak during the Covid shutdown two years ago:
That in turn implies that the greatest concern has moved from inflation to growth. In other words, we’re now more concerned about a recession than about inflation. That shows up very clearly in the relative performance of stocks and bonds (proxied below by the ratio of the prices of the most popular exchange-traded funds covering the S&P 500 and long Treasury bonds). When risk is “off,” then there is growing fear of recession and traders will buy bonds and sell stocks. The risk-off phases of the last month are marked in red. When risk is on, traders sell bonds and buy stocks. Once the initial shock of the Ukraine invasion had worn off, stocks enjoyed a rally against bonds; for the last month that has turned into high risk-on/risk-off volatility as views change on whether the US is heading for a recession in short order: